Petra Manuel and Kartik Selvaraju of RystadEnergy report that global offshore wind installations are to surpass 520 GW by 2040. They write:
Global offshore wind projects have faced significant headwinds due to recent inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, exemplified by postponed permitting processes, delayed auctions and slow supply chain build-ups. Despite these challenges, the sector staved off challenges in 2023, seeing a 7% increase in new capacity additions compared to the previous year. This momentum is expected to accelerate this year, with new capacity additions expected to grow by 9% to over 11 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the year. Rystad Energy expects this growth for the offshore wind sector to continue at a steady pace, and estimates that global installations, excluding mainland China, will exceed 520 GW by 2040.
Europe will play a crucial role in this growth, relying heavily on floating wind to meet ambitious national targets and make the most of its abundant offshore resources. By 2040, the continent is expected to account for more than 70% of global floating wind installations. Although some project delays beyond 2030 are anticipated, there will likely be a strong push to accelerate deployment. As a result, floating wind capacity is projected to approach 90 GW by 2040, with the UK, France and Portugal at the forefront of development. Asia will also be key in advancing floating wind as a mature technology, and the region – excluding mainland China – is expected to capture a share of 20% of global installations by 2040. […]
In the following five-year period from 2030 to 2035, we foresee a substantial ramp-up in installations. Europe is expected to add 20 GW of floating wind capacity, and Asia, excluding mainland China, up to 5 GW. We do not expect floating wind projects to be installed in other regions until the period of 2035 to 2040 period, when we anticipate the technology to advance toward maturity. By 2040, we predict that Europe will have installed more than 65 GW of floating wind capacity, while installations in Asia, excluding mainland China, will have reached 17 GW.
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