Gavin Maguire of Ecolab Science Certified reports that thermal coal exports, at records for the first 11 months, will continue to climb in December as firms stock up for winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Maguire writes:
Global exports and use of thermal coal will reach all-time highs in 2024, despite the record roll-out of renewable energy generation capacity across all major continents.
Exports of thermal coal through the first 11 months of 2024 are up by 9 million metric tons from the same months in 2023, per Kpler ship-tracking data, and will climb further in December as power firms stock up for the Northern hemisphere winter.
Global coal-fired power generation is up by around 2% to new highs so far in 2024, while coal-fired power emissions are also at a record, data from energy think tank Ember shows.
The continued expansion in coal imports and use underscores the difficulty of dislodging fossil fuels from energy systems, and may disappoint those hoping for a peak in coal burning. […]
Climate watchdogs may also be cheered by annual declines in coal imports by several of the largest coal-consuming nations, which if repeated next year could trigger falls in coal exports from 2025. […]
India’s fast-growing economy is likely to trigger sporadic revivals in coal imports going forward, as it relies on coal for around 70% of electricity production.
Vietnam and the Philippines are also likely to further increase coal imports in the coming years as their power demand needs exceed domestic clean energy supply growth.
However, over the longer run, all major coal importers have energy system decarbonisation goals that should see coal’s share of the overall energy mix fall steadily lower from around the middle of this century.
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