China’s economy grew by 5% in 2024, meeting the official target, driven by investment and export growth, despite weaker consumption, reports Jason Douglas of The Wall Street Journal. However, many economists question the reliability of the data, citing concerns about deflation, real estate struggles, and declining consumer confidence. He writes:
China said its economy expanded by 5% last year, formally hitting its official growth target in a difficult year that saw officials respond to a sharp summertime deterioration in key indicators with its most aggressive stimulus in years.
The country’s National Bureau of Statistics said gross domestic product was buoyed by solid growth in investment and exports, which offset weaker consumption, highlighting the unevenness of Chinese growth.
Still, some outside economists say the robust headline numbers contrast with a variety of other data points that paint a weaker picture of economic health, including anemic consumer inflation, tax revenue and online spending. The economy remains mired in a real-estate slump and has been struggling with deflation.
Beijing faces a further risk this year with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to impose stiffer tariffs on Chinese imports, which would squeeze China’s booming exports and pinch growth overall.[…]
One possible explanation for the difference between Friday’s full-year GDP figures and earlier data can be found in a noticeable perking up of economic activity toward the end of the year after Chinese authorities swooped in with a barrage of monetary and fiscal stimulus measures in late September and October. […]
Though the government dropped its 5.5% target for that year, official data still pointed to an expansion of around 3% for 2022, though some outside economists estimate that the economy came close to an outright contraction that year. Meanwhile, real-estate investment collapsed, dragging on growth into 2023. Despite such pressures, the economy expanded 5.2% that year, according to official data. […]
The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth in China will slow to around 4.5% this year, and to a little over 3% by 2029.
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